April 19, 2012, by Fraser
China’s growing demand for food
“A debate on food security without the Chinese is like staging Hamlet without the Prince – it makes no sense.”
Dr John Strak, Honorary Professor in Food Economics at The University of Nottingham, explores China’s growing demand for food.
The latest piece of research from The Institute of Grocery Distribution (IGD) in the UK confirms something that we all knew was coming – China has overtaken the United States as the world’s biggest food and grocery retail market.
The numbers
According to the IGD researchers, the Chinese grocery sector was worth £607 billion at the end of 2011, while the Americans spent £572 billion over the same period. This isn’t just a one off statistical event – by 2015 the IGD forecasts that the Chinese market will be worth £918 billion compared to a US spend of around £675 billion. Indeed, Chinese food sales will grow at a rate of almost 11% per annum between 2011 and 2015 – more than twice the rate of the US market.
These numbers put China’s place in the debate about global food security (GFS) in context. Clearly, a debate on food security without the involvement of the Chinese is like staging Hamlet without the Prince. It makes no sense. That’s one of the reasons why the GFS Priority Research Group at Nottingham is actively pursuing research links and meetings with Chinese colleagues at our campus in China and with new colleagues from research institutions situated all around China.
What should be done and when
I am personally making progress with new research collaborations on the Chinese meat industry with academics at Sichuan Agricultural University. And the major global food security event in Shanghai that Nottingham is hosting later this year will bring world class researchers and major global food businesses into one room in order to identify solutions to food security issues.
Stakeholders from industry and the academic community from west and east will be encouraged to focus on what can be done and by when, rather than what should be done, if ever.
Science-led solutions
The other angle on this subject that should not be neglected is the need to construct a multidisciplinary dialogue and research effort. Science-led solutions for GFS questions will have social and cultural impacts – and will need to be framed within the existing market and economic systems. There is only so much change that the world’s institutions and trading networks can bear in a set period of time.
This last point is one that the Chinese system, with its checks and balances and its habit of considering history and tradition as an important part of dealing with change is something that I, for one, will welcome. China’s dominance of the world’s food market is a timely reminder of how important Chinese ideas will be in achieving global food security in the future.
中国对粮食不断增长的需求
诺丁汉大学的粮食经济学荣誉教授John Strak博士探索了中国对粮食不断增长的需求。
英国的食品分配研究所(IGD)最新的一份研究报告称，中国已经超过美国成为世界最大的粮食和副食零售市场。
统计数字
根据英国的食品分配研究所(IGD)的专家们的研究，截止2011年底中国在食品方面的销售总价值已经达到6兆70亿英镑，而美国在此方面的销售额为5兆7百20亿英镑。IGD还预计在2015年之前中国市场将突破9兆1百80亿英镑，而美国为6兆7百50亿英镑。换句话说，中国的粮食销售在2011至2015年间将达到几乎11%的年增长率，这几乎是美国市场的两倍。
这些统计数字使中国成为全球粮食安全领域讨论的中心。如果这场辩论没有中国的参与，就如同莎士比亚戏剧《哈姆雷特》中没有王子一样，完全失去了它的意义。这也是为什么诺丁汉大学全球粮食安全研究小组积极地与中国校区和其他研究机构的同行见面，讨论，切磋。
什么应该做，什么时候做
我与四川农业大学的专家们一起在就中国肉食品工业的研究上取得了进展。诺丁汉大学将在年底举办全球粮食安全会议。全世界的顶尖科学家和主要的食品企业都将前来参与这一盛会并探讨粮食安全问题。东西方企业和学术界的利益相关者将就“什么可以做以及什么时候做“而非“什么应该做”进行讨论。
以科学为主导的解决方案
从另外一个角度来看待中国与全球粮食安全问题是在跨学科的对话和研究上努力。以科学为主导的解决方法将需要在现有的市场和经济体制内形成框架，以产生社会和文化的影响。当今世界的机构和贸易网络在一定时间内还只能承受有限的改变。
中国的传统体制一贯将历史和传统作为改革的首要考量，在这一点上我个人非常赞同。中国在世界粮食市场的主导地位对于中国式思维对未来实现粮食安全的影响将是一个及时的提醒。
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