China Policy Institute Blog

China Intensifies Media Campaign against Taiwan’s DPP in the US

Written by J. Michael Cole. Amid signs of a consolidating identity among Taiwan’s youth and the increasingly likely prospect of a victory by the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) in the January 2016 elections, China’s Communist Party propaganda department is ramping up its efforts to cultivate a pro-unification sentiment within the island-nation’s population. And this time, …

Taiwan and the Diaoyutai Spat: Is All that Noise Really Necessary?

Written by J. Michael Cole. If a few years ago you had asked people outside the region whether they had ever heard about the Diaoyutai islets, or the Senkakus as they are known in Japan, the likely answer would be that they had not. That this is no longer the case is in large part due …

KMT’s Presidential Nomination: Significance and Historical Comparisons

Written by Dafydd Fell.   On July 19 the Kuomintang (KMT) officially nominated the senior legislator Hung Hsiu-chu as its 2016 presidential candidate. A year ago, even six months ago few would have predicted Hung would be a potential candidate. Even after she joined the primary, it was still widely believed that the KMT chairman Eric …

Taiwan’s presidential election could start a pivot to Beijing

Written by Niv Horesh. Taiwan is limbering up for its 2016 presidential election. Its two main parties have picked their candidates – and gotten very different receptions. When the ruling Nationalist Party (KMT) nominated Hung Hsiu-chu as its candidate for the 2016 Taiwan presidential elections, the reaction was disbelief. Instead of picking its much younger chairman, Eric Chu, …

The coming collapse of the KMT?

Written by C. Donovan Smith. A rich party with a long history and extensive local factional networks, the Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) in Taiwan is about to be marginalized. At first blush the current situation strongly resembles the early 2000s: the KMT is demoralized, in danger of losing both the presidency and the legislature, and …

Youth, Taishang and absentee voting in Taiwan

Written by Courtney Donovan Smith. In the aftermath of last year’s Sunflower protests, there was considerable hand-wringing in both established parties about the clear lack of trust the protesters had in them. Both the DPP and KMT vowed to increase communication, boost outreach and to pay more attention to the needs and aspirations of the young. …

China’s New S-400 SAM: Implications for Taiwan

Written by Michal Thim. June 1982 is a watershed in the history of modern air power for two reasons. First, it was probably the first and so far the last deployment of surface-to-air missile systems (SAM) with the intent to use them for offensive purposes (“offensive AD”) — that is, the denial of use of …

China’s M503: Salami slicing the status quo

Written by Michal Thim. China officially launched the new M503 commercial flight route on March 29 — right in the centre of the Taiwan Strait. Initial reactions in Taipei were of surprise and rejection, which suggests that relevant government agencies in Taiwan were left in the dark before Beijing made the announcement. Taiwan objected on the …

Taiwan’s ‘Apache-gate’ and a call for restraint

Written by J. Michael Cole. The optics could hardly have been worse: Lt. Col. Lao Nai-cheng, a pilot manning the Taiwanese Army’s AH-64E “Guardian” helicopter—one of the most advanced helicopters of its kind in the world—is caught after surreptitiously taking a group of civilians, including a few foreign nationals, on a tour of the base, …

Has China Demolished the Taiwan Consensus?

Written by Gunter Schubert. In a recent contribution to the National Interest, Michael Cole, a journalist in Taiwan and editor of Thinking Taiwan, claimed that China had demolished the Taiwan consensus. He referred to the so-called ‘1992 consensus’ which holds that Beijing and Taipei maintain that Taiwan is a part of China but acknowledge at …